Market Thermometer

Composite Market Intelligence

Historical Valuation

Composite standard deviation from the long-run mean

VALUATION Models

Valuation composites comparing market levels versus long-run fundamentals.

S&P 500 Market Indicator

Market Analysis Model

Extreme
Current 6878.88
Historical Mean 1851.04
Z-Score 2.85
Valuation 372
Historical chart renders here. Trigger the detail modal for the full series.
AI Insight

The S&P 500 is currently trading at $6878.88, significantly above its historical mean of $1851.04 based on 513 recent data points. This substantial deviation suggests a considerable expansion in market valuation.

The current price represents a >270% premium to the historical average, indicating strong bullish sentiment that may not be sustainable long-term. (Confidence: HIGH, Valuation: OVERVALUED)

Updated Mar 1, 2026 • 9:00 AM

VT (Global Stocks) Market Indicator

Market Analysis Model

Extreme
Current 147.84
Historical Mean 78.32
Z-Score 2.12
Valuation 189
Historical chart renders here. Trigger the detail modal for the full series.
AI Insight

VT is currently trading at $147.84, significantly above its historical mean of $78.32 based on 232 observations. This suggests a substantial premium relative to long-term averages.

The current price represents approximately 189% of the historical mean, indicating a considerable deviation that warrants caution despite using only one metric for evaluation. (Confidence: MEDIUM, Valuation: OVERVALUED)

Updated Mar 1, 2026 • 9:01 AM

RECESSION Models

Macro early-warning dashboards tracking growth inflections.

Housing Market Indicator

Market Analysis Model

Extreme
Current 327.45
Historical Mean 152.39
Z-Score 2.40
Valuation 215
Historical chart renders here. Trigger the detail modal for the full series.
AI Insight

The housing asset is currently valued at $327.46, significantly exceeding its historical mean of $152.39 based on 468 observations. This represents a substantial premium relative to long-term averages.

The current value is more than double the historical mean, indicating a strong deviation from typical pricing levels. (Confidence: HIGH, Valuation: OVERVALUED)

Updated Mar 1, 2026 • 9:01 AM

SENTIMENT Models

Crowd psychology and positioning gauges to time extremes.

Gold Market Indicator

Market Analysis Model

Extreme
Current 5247.90
Historical Mean 1534.07
Z-Score 3.06
Valuation 342
Historical chart renders here. Trigger the detail modal for the full series.
AI Insight

Gold is currently trading at $5247.90, significantly exceeding its historical mean price of $1534.07 based on 282 recent observations. This represents a substantial deviation from long-term averages.

The current price is more than three times the historical average, indicating a strong likelihood that gold is presently priced above its intrinsic value. (Confidence: HIGH, Valuation: OVERVALUED)

Updated Mar 1, 2026 • 9:00 AM

Bitcoin Market Indicator

Market Analysis Model

High
Current 65590.90
Historical Mean 20254.16
Z-Score 1.51
Valuation 324
Historical chart renders here. Trigger the detail modal for the full series.
AI Insight

Bitcoin is currently trading at $65,590.90, representing a substantial premium to its historical mean of $20,254.16 based on 4041 observations.

The current price significantly exceeds the long-term historical average, suggesting a potential bubble or significant speculative activity. (Confidence: MEDIUM, Valuation: OVERVALUED)

Updated Mar 1, 2026 • 9:01 AM

Asset Radar

How core assets compare versus their historical fair value ranges.

📊

S&P 500

Real-time snapshot

Severely Overvalued

Spot

6878.88

Historical Mean

1851.04

Valuation Score

372

AI Breakdown

The S&P 500 is currently trading at $6878.88, significantly above its historical mean of $1851.04 based on 513 recent data points. This substantial deviation suggests a considerable expansion in market valuation.

The current price represents a >270% premium to the historical average, indicating strong bullish sentiment that may not be sustainable long-term.

📊

Gold

Real-time snapshot

Severely Overvalued

Spot

5247.90

Historical Mean

1534.07

Valuation Score

342

AI Breakdown

Gold is currently trading at $5247.90, significantly exceeding its historical mean price of $1534.07 based on 282 recent observations. This represents a substantial deviation from long-term averages.

The current price is more than three times the historical average, indicating a strong likelihood that gold is presently priced above its intrinsic value.

📊

Bitcoin

Real-time snapshot

Severely Overvalued

Spot

65590.90

Historical Mean

20254.16

Valuation Score

324

AI Breakdown

Bitcoin is currently trading at $65,590.90, representing a substantial premium to its historical mean of $20,254.16 based on 4041 observations.

The current price significantly exceeds the long-term historical average, suggesting a potential bubble or significant speculative activity.

📊

Housing

Real-time snapshot

Severely Overvalued

Spot

327.45

Historical Mean

152.39

Valuation Score

215

AI Breakdown

The housing asset is currently valued at $327.46, significantly exceeding its historical mean of $152.39 based on 468 observations. This represents a substantial premium relative to long-term averages.

The current value is more than double the historical mean, indicating a strong deviation from typical pricing levels.

📊

VT (Global Stocks)

Real-time snapshot

Severely Overvalued

Spot

147.84

Historical Mean

78.32

Valuation Score

189

AI Breakdown

VT is currently trading at $147.84, significantly above its historical mean of $78.32 based on 232 observations. This suggests a substantial premium relative to long-term averages.

The current price represents approximately 189% of the historical mean, indicating a considerable deviation that warrants caution despite using only one metric for evaluation.