Market Thermometer

Composite Market Intelligence

Historical Valuation

Composite standard deviation from the long-run mean

VALUATION Models

Valuation composites comparing market levels versus long-run fundamentals.

S&P 500 Market Indicator

Market Analysis Model

Extreme
Current 6941.81
Historical Mean 1862.15
Z-Score 2.85
Valuation 373
Historical chart renders here. Trigger the detail modal for the full series.
AI Insight

The S&P 500 is currently trading at $6941.81, representing a substantial premium compared to its historical mean of $1862.15 based on 514 observations. This indicates significant market expansion relative to long-term averages.

The current value is more than three times the historical mean, suggesting a strong deviation from typical valuations. (Confidence: HIGH, Valuation: OVERVALUED)

Updated Feb 11, 2026 • 9:00 AM

VT (Global Stocks) Market Indicator

Market Analysis Model

Extreme
Current 147.58
Historical Mean 78.50
Z-Score 2.10
Valuation 188
Historical chart renders here. Trigger the detail modal for the full series.
AI Insight

VT is currently trading at $147.58, significantly above its historical mean of $78.50 based on 233 observations. This represents substantial deviation from long-term averages.

The current price is nearly double the historical mean, suggesting a strong disconnect from intrinsic value given the breadth of historical data. (Confidence: HIGH, Valuation: OVERVALUED)

Updated Feb 11, 2026 • 9:01 AM

RECESSION Models

Macro early-warning dashboards tracking growth inflections.

Housing Market Indicator

Market Analysis Model

Extreme
Current 328.15
Historical Mean 152.02
Z-Score 2.43
Valuation 216
Historical chart renders here. Trigger the detail modal for the full series.
AI Insight

Housing is currently valued at $328.15, which is significantly above its historical mean of $152.02 based on 467 observations. This substantial premium suggests considerable deviation from long-term trends.

The current price represents more than double the historical average, indicating a strong likelihood of being in an overvalued state. (Confidence: HIGH, Valuation: OVERVALUED)

Updated Feb 11, 2026 • 9:01 AM

SENTIMENT Models

Crowd psychology and positioning gauges to time extremes.

Gold Market Indicator

Market Analysis Model

Extreme
Current 5077.70
Historical Mean 1549.48
Z-Score 2.90
Valuation 328
Historical chart renders here. Trigger the detail modal for the full series.
AI Insight

Gold is currently trading significantly above its historical mean, representing a substantial premium based on the provided data. This suggests considerable deviation from long-term average pricing.

The current price ($5077.70) is more than three times the historical mean ($1549.48), indicating a strong likelihood of being priced beyond intrinsic value given ample historical context (284 observations). (Confidence: HIGH, Valuation: OVERVALUED)

Updated Feb 11, 2026 • 9:00 AM

Bitcoin Market Indicator

Market Analysis Model

High
Current 66984.60
Historical Mean 20115.14
Z-Score 1.56
Valuation 333
Historical chart renders here. Trigger the detail modal for the full series.
AI Insight

Bitcoin is currently trading at $66,984.60, representing a significant premium compared to its historical average of $20,115.14 based on 4029 observations.

The substantial deviation from the long-term mean suggests current prices are likely driven by speculative momentum rather than intrinsic value. (Confidence: MEDIUM, Valuation: OVERVALUED)

Updated Feb 11, 2026 • 9:01 AM

Asset Radar

How core assets compare versus their historical fair value ranges.

📊

S&P 500

Real-time snapshot

Severely Overvalued

Spot

6941.81

Historical Mean

1862.15

Valuation Score

373

AI Breakdown

The S&P 500 is currently trading at $6941.81, representing a substantial premium compared to its historical mean of $1862.15 based on 514 observations. This indicates significant market expansion relative to long-term averages.

The current value is more than three times the historical mean, suggesting a strong deviation from typical valuations.

📊

Bitcoin

Real-time snapshot

Severely Overvalued

Spot

66984.60

Historical Mean

20115.14

Valuation Score

333

AI Breakdown

Bitcoin is currently trading at $66,984.60, representing a significant premium compared to its historical average of $20,115.14 based on 4029 observations.

The substantial deviation from the long-term mean suggests current prices are likely driven by speculative momentum rather than intrinsic value.

📊

Gold

Real-time snapshot

Severely Overvalued

Spot

5077.70

Historical Mean

1549.48

Valuation Score

328

AI Breakdown

Gold is currently trading significantly above its historical mean, representing a substantial premium based on the provided data. This suggests considerable deviation from long-term average pricing.

The current price ($5077.70) is more than three times the historical mean ($1549.48), indicating a strong likelihood of being priced beyond intrinsic value given ample historical context (284 observations).

📊

Housing

Real-time snapshot

Severely Overvalued

Spot

328.15

Historical Mean

152.02

Valuation Score

216

AI Breakdown

Housing is currently valued at $328.15, which is significantly above its historical mean of $152.02 based on 467 observations. This substantial premium suggests considerable deviation from long-term trends.

The current price represents more than double the historical average, indicating a strong likelihood of being in an overvalued state.

📊

VT (Global Stocks)

Real-time snapshot

Severely Overvalued

Spot

147.58

Historical Mean

78.50

Valuation Score

188

AI Breakdown

VT is currently trading at $147.58, significantly above its historical mean of $78.50 based on 233 observations. This represents substantial deviation from long-term averages.

The current price is nearly double the historical mean, suggesting a strong disconnect from intrinsic value given the breadth of historical data.